Umno: Doomsday in sight?

Even Tan Sri Muhammad bin Mohd Taib also offers himself for the No.2 possition in Umno as reported by the Malaysiakini today.

11 years ago in 1997, to avoid the embarrassment that might cause by my motion of no confidence against him in the Selangor State Legislative Assembly, Mohammad made a wise choice of resigning as the Chief Minister of Selangor after he was arrested in Brisbane Airport for failing to declare the currency worth approximately RM2.4 million carried by him.

With his announcement today, there are now 5 candidated vying for the post of Deputy President of Umno. That is not the end of the list. The much talked about Tan Sri Muyhidin Yasin has yet to make his announcement. If he did in the next few days, the list would be at least 6. That is chaotic and unprecedented for Umno.

Although Abdullah has said that Najib will be his successor, no one should take it for granted that Najib would have a smooth sail to the presidency. At least Tengku Razaleigh will not easily give up his hope especially now that he has Dr Mahathir's support.

This is a once-in-the-lifetime opportunity to see how the infighting within Umno will lead to its self-destruction.

Najib may not be the next PM

(Photo by Malaysiakini)

While all eyes are on Dato Seri Najib Abdul Razak he may end up as the president of the Umno but not the Prime Minister of Malaysia by March 2009.

As I have posted earlies in this blog, there are 2 ways of casting no confidence vote against the Prime Minister in Parliament and as such the Pakatan Rakyat will still be able to change the government in the coming parliamentary sitting commencing on this Oct 13 by rejecting the Budget if a 14-day notice of motion of no confidence is not served in time.

It is still too early for Najib to be overjoyed about Abdullah's decision to throw in the towel in the Umno election.

Abdullah to quit

Latest from Malaysiakini: Abdullah to quit in March next year. Thus, it ends all speculations.

Now all eyes are on Najib.

If Anwar Ibrahim were to have sufficient number to take over the Federal Government from the Barisan Nasional, the same methodology as I wrote in my previuos post would similarly be applicable.

(Edited version)

How to cast no confidence vote against Abdullah?

Everyone is still waiting for Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's announcement. Read Malaysiakini today on the related story.

If Abdullah wanted to retain his position as Umno president, the Pakatan Rakyat would have to resort to casting no confidence vote against him in Parliament.

By virtue of Article 43(4), the Prime Minister shall tender the resignation of the Cabinet if he ceases to command the confidence of the majority of Parliament unless at his request Yang DiPertuan Agong dissolves Parliament.

There are 2 ways of passing a no confidence vote against the Prime Minister. Firstly, by giving a 14-day notice in accordance with the Standing Order. Then the whole whole will be waiting for the motion to be debated and decided. Secondly, by rejecting the budget tabled by the Prime Minister cum Finance Minister for which the budget debate will commence on Oct 13.

If the Pakatan Rakyat intended to launch a deadly ambush, the second method would be the better choice as no prior notice is required.

In any event, that would be equally explosive, like the one in Nagasaki in 1945.

Where to, Abdullah?

Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will make announcement tomorrow if he is seeking to retain the president's post of the Umno.

There are a few possibilities. Firstly, he might call it a day and will retain the prime minister's post until the election of the new Umno president next March. This seems to be the view of most of the Umno top leaders.

Secondly, he might fight on against all odds. Of course, one should not underestimate him. He might have had quietly obtained sufficient promises to nominate him to seek re-appointment by tomorrow. If this was the case, it would be a big blow to Dato Sri Najib Abd Razak and his ambitious followers.

Thirdly, Abdullah might bring 40 Umno MPs, and perhaps some other MPs from the Barisan Nasional component parties, to join Pakatan Rakyat and form a coalition federal government on the condition that he would be retained as Prime Minister for the next 2 to 3 years to carry out his reform in the judiciary, anti-corruption and public delivery system. Thereafter, he would hand over the premiership to Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

It looks weird but it is possible. There would be a few advantages if the Pakatan Rakyat were to accept this offer. Firstly, there would be a peaceful transfer of power from the Barisan Nasional to the Pakatan Rakyat. Thus, there would be no declaration for emergency. Thirdly, all those reforms proposed by him could be carried out with full support from the Pakatan Rakyat MPs as against the Barisan Nasional MPs.

Lastly, Anwar would eventually be made the Prime Minister.

Whereto, Abdullah? It's all up to you.

Umno is melting down

Before Datuk Abdullah Ahamd Badawi can annouce his decison whether to contest for the Umno presidency on this Oct 9, he has already been treated as transparent by his own leaders within the Umno.

Everyone in the Umno, except Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, has taken for granted that Dato Najib Abdul Razak will be the only and natural choice of substitute. As such, the relatively unknown leader like Dato Nur Jazlan has also announced that he would contest for the No. 2 post after the announcements by Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam.

Going by the Malay culuture and of course the Umno culture, these leaders are biadap (rude) for being disrespectful to Abdullah Badawi. How could they assume that Abdullah Badawi will certainly step down? This is similar to the situation of a son buying coffin for his ailing father.

They are destroying not only the Umno but the Malay culture which they have been claiming to have cherished all these years.

The Umno is melting down amid the party election heat like the melting down of Antarctica as a result of the global warming.

It takes courage to acknowledge change

Undoubtedly, the Malaysia political landscape has changed after the general election on March 8, 2008. The frontline politicians have also, in the past few months, been learning how to adapt themselves to the change.

It is sometime amusing to see how those established politicians from the previous ruling party have to struggle to pick up new vocabulary in order to suit their roles as opposition now. Of course, the vice versa goes to the previous opposition who have now turned government.

Be it as it may, it takes a lot of courage for everyone in the country to acknowledge that change has taken place and, more importantly, to live with it.